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Daniel Kahneman

Princeton University, USA

The Psychology of Scientific Overconfidence: The Case of Psychology

There is evidence of massive miscalibration in the probability that investigators attach to the success of their experiments — especially in between-subjects designs. Three contributing causes are likely involved: (1) the investigators inevitably have a within-subject perspective; (2) their hypotheses are almost certainly directionally true, though most likely to be weak; (3) intuitions about effect sizes are generally defective — a phenmenon we label „noise-neglect.“ As a consequence researchers are likely to overestimate their chances ex ante and to resist negative evidence ex post.

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